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Thursday, June 29, 2006

Cease Fire Possible?

Eleven Sunni insurgent groups have come together in Iraq and sent the government a message, they will stop attacking if they a group of demands are met. The demands include a withdraw of foriegn force by 2008, an end to the prohibition on Ba'ath party members in government, allowing some former Iraqi Army officers back into the service, and a release of insurgent detainees.

It will be interesting to see how the Iraqi government reacts to the offer, and what kind of response Washington gives to it. My guess is it will get a lukewarm public reception in both Baghdad and Washington, but will lead to some interesting behind the scenes discussions in both capitals.

The offer itself gives a boost to the government in Iraq, and shows that the home grown insurgents may feel that it's not only legitimate, but working in the best interest of all Iraqi's.

I'll hazzard a guess that attacks by the foriegn fighters in Iraq may well step up in the next couple of weeks as both Washington and Baghdad begin looking at the offer, and negotiating with the home grown groups. A nightmare for those groups is a united Iraq that is putting it's energy into pushing them out.

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Blogger Praguetwin said...

I don't think Maliki is in any position to promise a 2008 withdrawl of American Troops.

It is estimated that there are between 30 and 40 Sunni Insurgent groups. I can't see even the majority of them giving up their guns unless groups like the Badr Brigade give up their's which they won't.

At least a dialogue has started, but how do you negotiate with such a splintered insurgency?

12:00 PM  
Blogger Tim said...

My God, let's hope its true and we can finally bring our people back home! Pray hard for peace and that just maybe this is the real deal. I want this war to end so badly.

3:30 PM  
Blogger shoprat said...

I hope they are sincere but their record is against them.

7:42 PM  
Blogger Crazy Politico said...

Praguetwin, you start by having Iraq's government dealing and negotiating honestly with the 11 groups that have come forward. If those 11 hold up their end of the bargain, others will see that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Tim, I definitely hope it's the start of the end of the major insurgency. It won't happen overnight, but I think that they have at least found a starting point.

Shoprat, I don't think "all" insurgents will immediately lay down arms, but it will be interesting to see how it works over the next few weeks.

9:28 PM  
Blogger Ted said...

If those radical morons wanted peace, the World Trade Center would still be standing. Nothing will ever satisfy those idiots. Laying down "OUR ARMS" is exactly what they want us to do. It just makes everything easier for them.

If the Liberals in the house and senate have their way, we will do just what the insurgents want us to do. Nothing like having an enemy that won't fight back.

I thank God for the "Right Thinking" people of this nation. We won't let that happen.

9:40 PM  
Blogger Praguetwin said...

Did you really think this was going somewhere? All deals are now off and none of the major militias even considered the deal.

Just a stunt with no real hope for success. Hey, at least he is trying.

6:06 PM  

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