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Sunday, October 22, 2006

Ouch, That Would Hurt

With everyone wondering what will happen when the Democrats take control of congress (me included), Barron's Online is telling the Democrats to put away their confetti, and Nancy to get back to the Minority Leaders office, because they won't be winning a majority in either the House or Senate on November 7th.

Barron's has been a more reliable predictor of House victories than polls in recent years, and in White House races, so they may not be as off base as some will think. In fact, they claim that they are over 93% accurate when predicting the House and 89% when predicting the Senate.

Their "worst case" scenario is a House with a 2 vote GOP majority and a 2 vote majority in the Senate, but they really think it will be 13 in the House.

They provide some interesting caveats to their formula, and they have had some bad years in their predictions, but in each of those cases there were multiple things causing voters to swing way off base.

This year, while Iraq is bugging folks a lot, and the GOP isn't making many new friends, their thought is most GOP base voters aren't going to skip voting or cross to the left. Most of those base voters look at things like economics, tax policies, and tend not to spend time on emotional issues when picking candidates. That doesn't bode well for many Democrats who need crossover votes to win.

So, in a few weeks we'll find out who's more accurate, Barrons, or Conventional Wisdom. I'm not putting any money on either this election cycle.

(hat tip to Charlie for finding the article)
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10Comments:

Blogger shoprat said...

I am not taking any bets either way. While I think it unlikely that the GOP will lose both houses, there is just to little information to bet the farm on. Of course the Donks are being way to cocky.

10:23 PM  
Blogger Lone Pony said...

Well, at least you used italics on "when". Let's hope Barron's is correct. And I must say, Nancy Pelosi is just scary as hell.

6:10 AM  
Blogger Tim said...

I'm not optimistic that the Dems will make any serious inroads. They have not artiulated a platform to right the ship of state. People will not vote for them based on "I'm not a Republican"

8:35 AM  
Blogger Crazy Politico said...

Hey Tim,

I agree, the major Democratic ad campaigns in both Illinois and Wisconsin have been "we don't stand with Bush", but nothing about what they'll really do.

I agree that the platform of "we aren't them" doesn't work often.

LP, I agree Nancy is a scary thought. One good thing, rumor has it she won't endorse Murtha as Majority Leader.

Shoprat, I agree with Cocky, though I think the GOP is being too negative about their own chances, also.

6:58 PM  
Blogger Alabama said...

Oh no, please say it isn't so, you're not one of those tuck tail and run, fair-weathered Republican friends? No No No...it can't be. ;-)

7:03 PM  
Blogger Alabama said...

Don't give up P.C.

7:03 PM  
Blogger ablur said...

Being conservative forces me to not like ‘W’ who is more of a liberal. The problem is there isn’t any real choice or option. Our last presidential race was one of the worst choices possible. We could choose from FAR left-Kerry or Centrist liberal-Bush. We could chose from the do nothing or the do something.
The real problem is the choices haven’t changed. We conservatives have no party and no voice. Until someone with conviction and true conservative tendencies run for office we are stuck with the Centrist Party-Republicans. Boy do I hate this.

12:11 AM  
Blogger Crazy Politico said...

Actually Ablur, Pat Buchannon has run a number of times, and not done well at all.

5:55 AM  
Blogger shoprat said...

ablur is right about many in the GOP but the problem is we can survive them, we can't survive the extremists who have gained the final say in the DEM.

7:13 PM  
Blogger ablur said...

Come on Crazy, Pat Buchannon? We have enough lunitics in office already.

10:29 PM  

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