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Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Nader Siphon

(H/T To Brainster on this info)

Zogby has a new poll out, showing that John McCain wins a 3 way race against Obama and Ralph Nader or Hillary Clinton and Nader.

While there is still a big number of undecideds in either match up (11% in both), Nader takes away enough support from the left end of the Democratic party to cost either Obama or Clinton the race.

Something in the poll that should bug democrats more than the idea of Nader running is that in the McCain Obama results Obama gets 8% less support from Democrats than Hillary would (67% to 75%). Those votes go most likely to McCain, since Nader's numbers don't change much.

It will be interesting to see, if as in 2004 the DNC pulls out it's lawyers to try and keep Nader off the ticket in certain states to prevent him from siphoning off votes. Remember, they didn't try it in all states, only the swing states. Because McCain gains the most independent votes according to Zogby, they may have to increase the pressure in some states that they didn't last time.

It will also be interesting to see if Hillary's mouthpieces pull out those numbers to try and shore up their standings with the super delegates. Any poll that shows her maringally more electable than Obama is going to be ammunition for her. Even though her and Obama's numbers are about the same in both polls, her folks will definitely tout the numbers that show she'll do better with the party base.

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