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Friday, January 20, 2006

Happy Anniversary

Today is the 25th Anniversary of the release of the Iranian hostages. I find it kind of fitting that on the same day we will speak of that annivesary, and how that release started the initial containment of the "New Iran" we are now looking at how to contain them again.

It's a delicate job, to keep them in check. Militarily it's not a big deal to take out most of Iran's air force, and other bases. The west could do it in fairly short order. Economically, though pissing them off could be disasterous on a global scale.

Not only do the Mullah's in Iran, and the wacko they've elected president control 25% of the world oil supply, they also control the choke point that allows quite a bit if the rest to be distributed. With just a few undred mines it's not hard to imagine tankers bottled up in the gulf, unable to leave for fear of hitting one.

During the "tanker wars" of the 1980's Iran did all it's attacking with surface vessels that were pretty easy to pick off. Today they possess some very quiet diesel submarines, which are not going to be as easy to find. It doesn't take a great crew to hit a slow moving tanker with a torpedo.

Am I saying that we shouldn't have a military option on the table for Iran? No, I'm not, but we need to be very careful if and when we pull that trigger, because there are going to be far reaching consequences.

I'd much rather see diplomatic and economic solutions, but Russia and China have already indicated that those may not be as easy to come by, mostly because of the vested interests in Iran, it's oil, and it's military purchases.

One thing is for certain, appeasing the leadership of Iran should not be a goal, letting those folks end up with nukes is something that folks like Russia and China should worry about as much as any other country for long term stability in the region.

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9Comments:

Blogger Lone Pony said...

Good points Bob, I hadn't thought about economic implications.

6:03 AM  
Blogger Greta (Hooah Wife) said...

I wish we could all close our eyes and those countries would just go away!

7:34 AM  
Blogger shoprat said...

I believe the best solution is to find people in Iran who hate their government, want democracy and are willing to fight for it, and give them whatever they need. They are there and they are speaking out over the net.

8:55 AM  
Blogger Jeff H said...

Thanks for the reminder. It therefore is also the 25th anniversary of Ronald Wilson Reagan's first inaugural. I was there. Standing-room ticket, probably 100 to 150 yards off to the side of the platform. God smiled on America that day. It was a sunny 70 degrees in the middle of a DC winter.

Long live America!!! Long live the Reagan Revolution!!!

9:15 AM  
Blogger Paula said...

No need for a war with Iran. Just give the green light for Israel to take out the nuclear power plants.

9:39 AM  
Blogger Assorted Babble by Suzie said...

I agree with you! The other night I listened to a high ranking military officer in an interview. He showed on the map how easy it would be to precisely bomb these places in Iran. However as you said, we need to do all that is neccessary for diplomatic talks before actions is taken. I feel Russia and China are in bed w/Iran and the UN is a joke. The sanctions they are speaking about are ridiculous. This is a very serious matter, and I don't think people realize it. In the long run, in my opinion, I feel Russia will be our biggest threat.

P.S. I remember in 80's when the hostage situation happened. I guess I am showing my age. (smiling)

9:52 AM  
Blogger Little Miss Chatterbox said...

Good post. I especially thought this was a good point:
"One thing is for certain, appeasing the leadership of Iran should not be a goal, letting those folks end up with nukes is something that folks like Russia and China should worry about as much as any other country for long term stability in the region."

Revealing my age I remember being in 5th grade when my teacher was telling us about current events including the Iranian hostage situation.

11:25 AM  
Blogger Crazy Politico said...

LP- In all likelihood economics will dominate any debate in both DC and Turtle Bay.

Greta-That would be great, and I don't think too many folks would oppose closing their eyes if those guys would disappear.

Shoprat- That's probably one thing we'll have to do. The current generation isn't real happy with the strictness of the country. However, the mullahs and Prez over there have all the control right now.

Paula, Isreal won't wait for a green light, if they think it's time, they'll do like they did to Iraq. The problem is flyovers of Iraqi and other airspace.

2:04 PM  
Blogger Rebekah said...

I also agree that a war wouldn't be the best option. There would be consequences that we'd have to deal with for a long time.
Though, I think Ahmadinejad has already shown that he doesn't care what the world thinks of him, so I also don't really see political pressure doing anything here, either. I don't know. It's a tough call. Something has to be done, though, before Iran develops nuclear power. Right now all we have to worry about is ticking them off. Soon we might have to worry about them striking back.

3:37 PM  

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